Rohan's M3 Weather Forecast

Just in case your interested this is an email I sent to the M3 team on Saturday morning 16th with my weather prediction's for the week.  When you're rinding a bike wind and rain takes on a whole new dimension...

Morning  gents,

I've just been checking out the weather and thought I'd bring you Rohan's forecast for the next week.  My Year 10 Geography and Year 10 work experience at the Bureau of Meteorology did pay off, I can read a weather map!

  • Ian texted me earlier this morning to say Charles has informed him on his way back that it is snowing in Cooma.  The 7.30 observation at Cooma airport showed 0.3 degrees with apparent temp of -7.7 degrees, sounds worse than our Saturday morning rides in June / July.
  • It appears that it will be cold across much of NSW and Victoria today in the wake of a low pressure system and resultant cold front that passed through last night but today should be the coldest we'll see for the next week.  It should warm back up to low to mid 20s for most of the trip.
  • I think that we'll miss most of the rain. We may encounter the odd shower or two but don't think we'll need to negotiate any significantly rainy days en route.
  • The bad news is that as a High Pressure system moves into the bight it will bring with it predominantly south westerly through to south easterly winds so we should expect to be riding largely into the wind at least until we get to Cooma.  I don't think they'll be as strong as today though around 15-25 km/hr. Although they may  not be excessively strong but when you are riding uphill any headwind is an inconvenience.  The gale force northerlies that we experienced yesterday ahead of the cold front would have been nice (they would have blown us up the hills without pedaling). Unfortunately they have now subsided and I wouldn't expect to see them again.
  • The good thing about the early starts and hopefully knocking of the majority of the ride by lunch time is that winds tend to increase in the afternoons and be calmer in the mornings.
  • The back half of next week is a little harder to predict (I'm certainly not a qualified meteorologist and so it's hard to predict this far out) but depending how fast the high pressure system moves through South Australia and Victoria we may end up riding the last day or two into a westerly headwind as well. At least most of that part of the journey is flat. Once again I can't imagine that they will be that strong. (High pressure systems tend to move slower than cold pressure systems and generally have lower accompanying wind speeds.  The good news is that it is likely to be mainly fine weather once we enter Victoria. The high pressure system is peaking at about 1030 hectopascals  which is quite high meaning that the weather should be quite pleasant as it passes directly over us mid-week. I expect a very pleasant lunch break at the picturesque Lakes Entrance on Thursday. 


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